Amid investors, thoughts remain on the enigmatic question of “how long can this last?” After eight years of economic expansion, investors are starting to wonder when the real estate contraction will happen. Ryan Severino, chief economist for JLL in New York, believes “we have at least a couple of years before we start to have that question about is the clock ticking or not.” Some would argue this is a rather optimistic opinion and align their sights more so with the ‘Skyscraper Effect,’ which is an economic indicator suggesting recession follows the construction of the world’s tallest buildings.
There is no arguing that we are late in the cycle, but depending on the market sector and asset type, additional investigation is required. Softening areas include central business districts (CBD), high street retail, and CBD multifamily. However, strength continues in suburban multifamily, class B and C multifamily, suburban office, and industrial sectors. It is also important to note that market cycles vary greatly based on geography as “[t]here is no such thing as a national real estate market. Every market and economy is local in nature,” adds Ted C. Jones, Ph.D., chief economist and senior vice president at Stewart Title Guarnty Co. in Houston. Jones along with others, forecast a bullish overall outlook on the economy. Keith Knutsson of Integrale Advisors, states “there is still upside potential for the remainder of this fiscal year, however, market shifts will present themselves in the near future.” Employment rates will remain high, but there will be lower levels of growth according to the Urban Land Institute (ULI). New Trump fiscal stimulus policies remain in question, particularly with the tax reform, which will greatly affect the amount of growth.
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October 2018
CategoriesAll Investing Keith Knutsson Real Estate Real Estate Investing |