As the clock on Brexit negotiations is ticking, Britain’s political winds are shifting. In two months, the European Council decides whether Brexit negotiations can advance to focus solely on future relationship and any potential transitional deal based on a report of the Chief negotiator Michel Barnier. Currently the logistics of managing the actual political exit of Britain are slowing down proceedings.
To understand future developments, it’s vital to begin with an understanding of the events leading up to Brexit. Keith Knuttson of Integrale Advisors says:” Over the past few months an array of invalidated speculation has played a part in shaping the misunderstandings regarding the proceedings in the UK. It is vital to remain conscious of ideas that were based on erroneous information.” David Cameron spoke of Brexit for the first time in February 2013: a referendum on Britain’s membership to the EU if the Conservative party is elected in the next general election. At the time, Cameron was trying to quell euro-skeptics within his own party. A year and a half later Scotland held a referendum on its own independence from the UK, but voters wanted to remain in the UK. The sentiment of Scots to remain in the UK and Europe caused further division within Brexit negotiations months later. In May 2015 Cameron’s party wins and British voters elect a majority Conservative government. During his victory speech Cameron mentions that there will be a referendum on EU membership. Cameron announces that he has negotiated a deal with EU leaders which will give Britain a “special status” if it stays in the EU. Then on February 2016 Cameron announces his official position and starts to campaign for the remain movement. A previous political ally to Cameron, Boris Johnson, proceeds to join the leave campaign on February 21st – shifting tides towards Brexit. On June 16th 2016 ardent remain campaigner Jo Cox is shot and stabbed in the street in her electoral district in northern England by the extremist Thomas Mair who shouted “Britain first, Keep Britain independent, Britain always comes first.” Both sides temporarily suspended campaigning ahead of the referendum. One week later the UK voted 51.1% in favor of Brexit with a turnout of 72.2%.
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8/27/2017 0 Comments The Global EconomyThe world’s major economies are growing harmoniously, a result of persistent low-interest-rate stimulus from central banks around the world and the rise out of debt for nations faced with political and economic uncertainty, such as Greece and Brazil.
The OECD, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development tracks the progress of its 45-member states. These nations are on track to grow this year, and 33 of them are projected to accelerate significantly from the previous year, according to the OECD. “For the first time in years we are seeing signs of continuous, synchronized economic expansion on the international front” said Keith Knutsson of Integrale Advisors. U.S. U.S. exports rose 6% in the first half of the year, the best two-quarter performance since the end of 2013. The post-election period has been categorized by economic strength as well record-breaking index growth, such as the DJA and Nasdaq averages. In addition, central bankers, gathering this week for the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming could disrupt the upwards trend if the financial stimulus package is reduced too quickly. In September, the Fed is to begin reducing $4.5 trillion in holdings building up over the past decade. Eurozone Economic growth in the eurozone outpaced the U.S. in the first and second quarter of the year. Business confidence is at its highest level in a decade, with unemployment falling to an eight-year low of 9.1%. Spain recorded its best growth performance in nearly two years in Q2 2017, with France and Portugal also producing solid growth. In Italy, exports are up 8% from the previous year. Even troubled eurozone economies, such as Greece, are finally show signs of strength. The OECD is predicting 1% growth for Greece this year. This is the best performance projected for the nation in over a decade. In July, Greece returned to the international bond market after being locked out since 2014. Japan Japan’s economy grew 4% in the three months through June, extending its most recent streak of growth under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. One of the primary drivers of growth is consumer spending; Nissan Motor Co. saw a rise in Japanese sales by 46% in June thanks to the popularity of newly released models. Emerging Markets The rebound of the Commodity market has produced a new sense of confidence in emerging markets. The IMF’s global price index for all commodities is up 27% from the start of 2016. The Brazilian economy is now forecast to expand 0.3% in 2017. While this outlook hinders the U.S. equity market, investors in other countries have benefited: Indexes in Hong Kong, Turkey, Argentina, Poland and Greece are all up more than 20% this year. Conclusion In July, the IMF projected global economic output would increase 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018. The growth increase is lifting the spirits of investors and boosting economic confidence throughout the world. For other articles by Keith Knutsson see the following links: Blog here Twitter here Facebook here Instagram here New York City office landlords are increasing their use of “goodies” such as free rent periods and remodeling money to incentivize tenants to rent space, according to market reports.
These benefits are commonly known as concessions, hitting a record $173/sq. ft. in the first quarter in Midtown, up 3.3% from the previous year. This comes as a result of increased competition from new office space, specifically in West Side Manhattan. Not long ago, owners of office buildings were offering rent reductions between five to seven months and tenant-improvement cash contributions of up to $70/sq. ft. Today, tenants get offers of anywhere from 12 to 15 months of free rent and landlord contributions between $85 and $100/sq. ft. While these concessions have been rising since the recession, brokers and analysts remain cautious. For example, historically low interest rates, have made concessions more affordable to landlords than that of previous real estate cycles. “Higher concessions are not a sign of a weak market. As long as interest rates remain relatively low, owners would rather offer concessions today for higher rent profits in the future.” said Keith Knutsson of Integrale Advisors. Landlords interested in boosting rent levels in order to maintain or increase the building’s value can negotiate higher rents with tenants, offering to cover a significant portion of construction costs and sometimes even take on the task of an office buildout, remodeling office space. They can make their returns when they refinance, recapitalize or sell their properties. |
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October 2018
CategoriesAll Investing Keith Knutsson Real Estate Real Estate Investing |